Nifty remained volatile in the week preceding its close at 1% lower. On the weekly timeframe, the index remained in a downward consolidation. Besides, it closed below the 50-week moving average, suggesting a rise in pessimism as investors awaited US non-farm payroll data.
On the daily chart, the index has been falling within a downward-sloping channel, which again confirms the bearish trend. The 14-day moving average and the 50-day moving average, are in bearish crossover, with the index value remaining below both averages.
On the lower end, the Nifty may roll down towards the lower band of the falling channel. The sentiment remains bearish, and the market will remain in sell-to-rise mode until Nifty closes above 17,850. On the lower end, supports are placed at 16,950/16,750.
The Bank Nifty slipped lower after a few days of consolidation. On the weekly chart, a dark cloud cover pattern is formed, indicating a bearish reversal in the trend. On the daily chart, the index has fallen below its 14-day moving average, indicating bearishness. On the lower end, the index may drift down towards 39,650–39,500. On the higher end, 41,000 is likely to remain a resistance.
Meanwhile, the NIFTY PSE index has witnessed a strong breakout in the larger time frame. On the daily chart, the index has given a breakout from an ascending triangle, which suggests a rise in optimism. The index is trading in a strong uptrend with higher high and higher low formations intact. The index remains in a buy-on-dip mode, with strong support at 4350 and the upside potential being 4,800/5,000.
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On the other hand, the Nifty Private Bank Index has formed a dark cloud cover pattern on the weekly chart, suggesting a bearish reversal in the trend. Besides, the index has sustained below its 14-day moving average, indicating bearishness. On the lower end, the index may drift down towards 20,100; below 20,100, the index may drift down towards 19,400. On the higher end, 21,200 is likely to remain a resistance.
In line with our index view, we can generate the following stock views:
Sell Kotak Bank
CMP: ₹1,699 | Target: ₹1,635 | Stop Loss: ₹1,730
The stock has been finding resistance at the falling trendline as it seems to remain in a downtrend. The recent attempt to provide a bullish reversal has failed. The stock will likely remain weak if it remains below 1730. On the lower end, the stock can drift down towards 1630-1600. A sell-on-rise approach is likely to be a good strategy to participate in the stock movement.
Buy NTPC
CMP: ₹180.75 | Target: ₹195 | Stop Loss: 174
The stock has given a breakout above its recent consolidation, suggesting a rise in optimism. Besides, it sustained above the critical short term moving average. The momentum indicator is in bullish crossover. Over the short term, it may move up towards ₹195, a support on the lower end is placed at ₹174.
The author, Rupak De is Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities
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